Mapping REDD Risks and Rewards: the Forest Carbon Index

Molly Peters-Stanley on December 6, 2009 Comment

A picture is worth a thousand words, and Resources for the Future's (RFF) new Forest Carbon Index (FCI) uses interactive maps to tell a visual story of forest carbon's global investment potential. Pretty useful stuff, considering that forest carbon's profit potential, stocks and policy hurdles are - like forest resources themselves - entirely place-based.

Last week, RFF hosted a seminar to introduce the policy-making tool, which resulted from a year-long collaboration among RFF, Climate Advisers and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) researchers. The Index is publically accessible in time for the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, where forest carbon - or Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) - could feature prominently in a shared climate solution.

How exactly does the Index benefit decision makers? The interactive map feature enables users to customize detailed data, on a local to national scale, to explore a region's forest carbon investment potential. Uniquely, the Index creators integrated over 20 national and sub-national datasets, localized to reflect an area's REDD risks and rewards, or profit potential.

Sounds complex? Have no fear - the online interface is simple enough for the armchair analyst.

RFF demonstrates that the user-friendly online tool can also tell a powerful policy story. Through one application of their interactive mapping feature, RFF depicts the 15 percent of locations with the highest profit potential. Of these promising locations, 75 percent are concentrated in the Congo Basin.

The next map depicted investment risk, which was heavily concentrated in the same region. This stark contrast illustrates a compelling story of barriers to investment in carbon management in those regions that are both opportunity-rich and high-risk.

RFF and its research partners don't abuse terms like "risk" and "potential" - they've taken care to clearly state their assumptions and methodology. Profit potential accounts for both biological and economic factors, including the opportunity cost of forest management and forests' future carbon sequestration limits. "Risk" asses a region's governance conditions, ease of doing business and readiness to engage the market - including its technical capacity and prior experience in the global carbon markets.

The result is a tool that the RFF has already employed to inform several key findings and policy recommendations, which are published in the RFF's Summary for Policymakers. Here's a brief summary:

1. Forests - specifically tropical forests - can and should play a role in global climate solutions. They can contribute up to 25 percent of needed emissions reductions by 2020 while potentially cutting developed countries' carbon prices in half.
2. A combination of public and private funding is needed to plan and build technical capacity, and inform policies and programs to avoid deforestation in the near- to long-term.
3. Near-term reductions should focus on Brazil, Amazon-Andes and Southeast Asia, while a mid-term focus should shift to Brazil and Indonesia, and to the Congo Basin in the long-term.
4. Policies must promote public participation and transparency to avoid exacerbating risks to political, economic, food and general security among vulnerable populations.
5. Developed countries should consider interacting with developing countries through financial intermediaries, who can advance developing countries' need for sustainable development while facilitating efficient and cost-effective emissions reductions.
6. Governments should focus on high-priority regions, taking into account the co-benefits of comprehensive land management - including protection of biodiversity and cultural significance.

The Forest Carbon Index literally maps out forest carbon's global investment risks and potential, and the RFF's summary of recommendations provides users with an example of how geospatial analysis can inform climate solutions. So go ahead - map your forest carbon future. After all, seeing is understanding.